Mech
Fan Games Pass Holder
Posts: 244
|
Post by Mech on Sept 22, 2013 0:41:26 GMT -5
Hi Guys,
I still poke my head in from time to time but thought I should drop in and say hi at least since it's been awhile. Hope everyone here is doing well these days!
I noticed I was at 199 posts, so why not throw down the 200th with an opinion question? By now everyone knows what's happening on Millionaire next week so I'd like to pose the question: Would YOU do it? Don't answer right away with your gut instinct, think it through. It's easy to say yes when you're at home and it's not real, but picture yourself in the player's shoes.
You have what I call the "dream situation" where you have a 25% shot at winning $1M with only a $75k gamble. Given your current situation all around, if you suddenly fell into $100,000, would you be willing to potentially throw three quarters of it down the drain at a 100% guess? Think about what impact that money would do for your life. Granted, $25k is still a nice payday and a million is incredible, but if $100,000 could completely change your situation, would you risk it?
Food for thought! Poll expires next Saturday at midnight.
Mech
|
|
|
Post by Gagamillionaire on Sept 22, 2013 15:23:55 GMT -5
It's nice to hear from you, Mech. Nobody leaves this forum forever I guess Congrats on your 200th post. I'll just say two things: I love playing poker and I'm bad at it. Mathematically speaking, you should definitely go for it. You have a 25% chance at getting the right answer even if you have no clue whatsoever and you "only" lose $75,000 for a chance at a million. The odds are too good to pass, really. Then again, we aren't machines. Most of us would know a lot of things to do with $100,000. Especially with the current economy and job market a little money on the side doesn't hurt. It's four times as much as $25,000. Four times as many possibilities. I'm lucky enough to live in a country where college education is free, but if I were a student in the US, it definitely makes a huge difference. Now to what I said about poker. I'm a bad player, because I hate to gamble with money on spec. I rather fold and be happy with what I have than what I could have, no matter how enticing or satistically sensible it is to go for it. So, I don't think I could get myself to answer the MDQ. I'd take my $100,000 home with me and spend a lifetime gnashing my teeth at the prospect of what I could have done with the million had my hunch been right, or being very relieved if I had been wrong. I wouldn't be a good stock broker either, I think. For a gambler, money is just the tool of the trade, or it should be. For this scenario, you'd need the same mindset. If you say to yourself, "I'm just here for the game. I want to enjoy myself, no matter what happens.", and you believe yourself, you would go for it. If it were the one million coconuts question, I'd go for it, too. Money, on the other hand, is just too important in our society, much more than it should be, that many people could play Millionaire that way. So, in a nutshell, no, I wouldn't go for it.
|
|
futuregshost
Fan Games Pass Holder
My BIRTHDAY dinner to myself... bone Apple tea
Posts: 1,118
|
Post by futuregshost on Sept 23, 2013 1:18:13 GMT -5
If I were in that situation, I think I would probably go for it. $100K is a lot of money, but given that you could multiply your winnings 10 TIMES, and you have a strong 1 in 4 chance, I would probably go for it. Plus, if you're wrong you would still get ¼ of the bank. So given the circumstances, I would go for it.
Also, I can't vote on the poll because it's not open to "regular users".
|
|
|
Post by FinalAnswer19 on Sept 23, 2013 18:58:00 GMT -5
There shouldn't be any restrictions on the poll.
|
|
sand.rules
Fan Games Pass Holder
Currently doing A2 Levels so next game release (Classic & Rave) will take some time.
Posts: 180
|
Post by sand.rules on Sept 24, 2013 12:55:04 GMT -5
I wouldn't. Who Wants to be a Millionaire is about the knowledge someone has in their head. I would rather happily take my hard-earned money over hellish questions than I would risking 3/4 of it just for pure greed, knowing that such an amount would change my life anyway.
|
|
kplewisvox
Hot Seat Survivor
Posts: 1,002
Member is Online
|
Post by kplewisvox on Sept 24, 2013 16:50:26 GMT -5
The important thing to realize is that mathematics and "pot odds" have absolutely nothing to do with this. Pot odds ("You're getting 12 to 1 on your money for a 25% chance!") only applies if you get repeated trials like you do in poker. You only get to play Millionaire once.
That said, if it was me, my necessary threshold of certainty would be much lower if I was in this situation, simply because I could live with myself for losing $75,000, knowing I'll see that money again sometime in my life. I would need some semblance of a hunch to do it though. I'm not playing eeny-meeny-miney-mo with $75,000.
Basically, I'd need the same amount of confidence needed to risk the $100k for the $250k.
|
|
woowho
Hot Seat Survivor
Posts: 94
|
Post by woowho on Sept 26, 2013 23:39:12 GMT -5
Absolutely, positively, 100% yes. Sure, it's 3-1 against even if you have no idea, but knowing that you're guaranteed a significant amount of money regardless is enough for me.
Plus, you're making history either way, and that's good enough for me.
|
|
Tim0n
Fan Games Pass Holder
$8,888,888 winner on Daily Millionaire | 5th Anniversary €500,000 winner
Posts: 750
|
Post by Tim0n on Sept 27, 2013 17:10:57 GMT -5
Ok, so I actually did an E(X) and a Var(X) calculation for this thing, but I didn't post it for some reason. Oh well. Anyway, statistically speaking I should go for it, as the expected value of winnings is well over $250k. BUT, I only get one shot, and, boy, what could I do with $100k blows my mind. So, as one of the options of the poll suggests, I'd mentally shut down and get kicked out of the show.
I honestly can't say what I'd do, I have no idea and I will not know until I find myself in Josina's position, which will probably be never.
|
|